Garland Nixon Hosts Ray McGovern & Scott Ritter part 2 transcript Saturday Morning Live
KGRaS transcript back half and link
Greetings, here is part 2 of the transcribe from Grasshopper of the above for your reading pleasure, blessings to you and yours, save the children!!!
Saturday Morning Live With Scott Ritter and Ray McGovern transcript by Gh sf back half (follows part 1 available in my last substack …)
{Rest assured, as always, any mistakes in this transcript are obviously my own, for which i apologize. i’ll pick it up from a moment before the end of part 1…}
Ray McGovern:
still… would PuTin have invaded Ukraine all by his lonesome, all by him self, as my grandchildren say? No way would he. He has China at his back.
China has made it very clear that it supports Russian objectives towards Nato,…and partly for the reasons you mentioned, Garland, they realize they’re the next target , for God’s sake.
{46:10}
RM:
If Nato succeeds in defeating PuTin or driving him into a corner, China is next. I mean, they don’t have to be paranoid about that, they read the US Pentagon documents. China is enemy number 1. Russia doesn’t make it to the first tier, for God’s sake, like number 4, i think, okay. And that’s just a month ago.
My point is simply this, that Putin went into Ukraine with tacit understanding from President Xi of China. That is big. That changed the whole equation. Not only the strategic and tactical military equation, but when PuTin says that he went in for two express purposes, deNazification and deMilitarization, he is capable of achieving those, what happened? He’s gonna, proably in the next couple of weeks, what happens after that? That’s what Scott rightly points out is a real problem.
Last thing i’ll question is this. Couple of weeks ago we were talking and we saying, you know, when Nato puts in those 155 Howitzers, they gotta move by train, they’re gonna be detected, Russia’s gonna blow the hell out of all the new equipment that comes into Ukraine.
Since then, they’ve hit many railheads, they’re hitting many many dumps and ammo dumps and so forth, well, what do we think now?
I mean, its billions and billions, but if they can’t get in without being destroyed, what does that do to the equation? I don’t know, Scott, do you have any ideas on that? {47:54}
Scott Ritter:
Well , the thing that frustrates me, not not not because i’m pro-Russian or whatever, its that my assessment was that it would be very difficult for Ukraine to absorb this equipment, this material.
but 155 Howitzers are already operating against Russia. I mean, they’re in Ukraine, they’re operating, they’re having effect, in Kharkov region, not all 90 of them, but they have several batteries worth, in play.
How did this happen? And this is why, this is one of the reasons why i’ve radically changed my overall assessment, because i had been operating under the assumption that Russia would be able to interdict the vast majority of this equipment. Russia has shown itself unable or unwilling to do this.
And as a result, the Ukrainians are having meaningful impact on the battlefield, not in the areas of main contention in the Donbass, but on the peripheria, for instance. This is one of the reasons why Russia has carried out tactical withdrawals North of Kharkov, because in order to match Ukraine’s putting its best capabilities there, in order to match that best capability, Russia would have to divert resources from its main effort.
Russia has opted not to do so, so they’re trading , you know, land, redefining the battlefield, realigning it using natural terrain features such as rivers, to block the Ukrainians, but this is a transformative moment in the war, because what it means is {49:44} that, deMilitarization IS NOT taking place.
That for all the forces that Russia’s destroying in the East, Ukraine is rebuilding, significant capability, and i , I liken this to Moscow in October November December 1941. Where the Germans are driving, they’re moving toward Moscow, and the Russians just start throwing things at them, throwing things at them, throwing things at them, sacrificing everything - to slow the Germans down, until , you know, General Winter, and the combination of Siberian divisions came in , that gave them the ability to counterattack.
The Germans were bled white, bled white, and they were stopped and pushed back.
SR:
If Russia doesn’t change the calculation that’s going on right now, that is the trajectory we’re heading on. Because 200, 000 troops , no matter how good they are and well equipped they are, are only capable of doing so much. And the fighting that’s taking place right now, even though its slaughtering Ukrainians, - it ain’t cost-free to the Russians; they’re losing equipment, they’re losing men, they’re losing materialle, and unless Putin mobilizes or transfers forces in , those aren’t being replaced.
So instead of having 200,000 men online, Russia today may have 180,000 and if you don’t think removing 20,000 people from that equation changes the options available to the Russian leadership, you don’t know anything about war.
So, i believe Russia is gonna win in the East , i believe they’re grinding Ukrainians down as we speak, they’re slaughtering them, its,- the amount of death and destruction being dealt to the Ukranians is unimaginable.
But i believe the Ukrainians are willing to take these losses, in order to buy time, so that they can reconstitute a military that will challenge Russia, because unless Russia’s willing to jump across the Dnieper River, and head into central Ukraine and Western Ukraine and eliminate the strategic depth that the Ukrainians are being gifted by Russians, — deMilitarization’s not taking place.
It can’t take place when tens of billions of dollars of equipment is pouring in , and Russia’s not able to interdict it. You know, the the fact that these 155 millimeter M777 Howitzers {52:22} are operating on the front lines right now, shows that, — there’s something wrong with the Russian methadology.
And unless they alter that methadology i think that we’re in for a very long summer.
Ray McGovern:
So i would {say} that Generals in Moscow are arguing with Putin, Look, — We have to change our methadology. We have to change our approach. Either, either we cut our losses or we go for the - for the whole nine yards, and start bombing the hell out of Western Ukraine. Its still not a member of Nato {53:00} , they’re still gonna be shy about matching us in any meaningful way, Let’s blow the hell out of them.
Now , i don’t know if that’s really an option, but it would probably come only if there were a full mobilization in Russia, is that your judgement, Scott? I think i’ve heard you say that before.
Scott Ritter:
Russia did a partial mobilization a little while ago, 60,000 troops , and i believe that that provided them the strategic depth to enable them to , once the East is taken, to take Odessa, cause i think that’s still part of the Russian objective.
I think, i mean, - you’re the expert at reading the the Russian press, but, the discussion that’s going on right now is about the dysfunction— i think Garland you mentioned an article by a Russian analyst from the Valday group (?), but he’s talking about how Ukraine basically is a dysfunctional nation-state and how it was always difficult to marry the West Ukraine Nationalists with the East Uraine Russians, that was always a difficult proposition.
Its now, no reasonable person can think of a way to keep them married, this is a divorce that is going to happen. The Russian speakers will never be part of the Ukraine, Ukraine will never accept Russian speakers, and the Russian speakers will never be able to live in peace with the Nationalists, and i think that Russia is seeking to break away the Russia speakers , i think that’s the objective of the Special Military Operation (SMO) , i believe they have sufficient forces to do this, but i also believe that Russia believed that Ukraine would be defeated, when this phase of the operation was complete.
That it would be a belly-up surrender, we’re gonna negotiate, whatever. I think that aspect is changed. I think they let Zelensky live too long, they allowed him too much time to build relationships with the West, they allowed the West time to overcome internal domestic political obstacles about providing heavy weaponry, and they ‘ve allowed Nato to reconstitute the supply mechanism.
Ukraine has strategic depth right now that it did not enjoy when this confict started. {55:30} And this changes everything, and if Russia doesn’t adapt to that , and it requires more than mobilizing 60,000; its gonna require mobilizing One and a half Million (1,500,000) people, because once Russia engages decisively on Ukraine, its gonna have to engage decisively on Finland.
Because, what’s motivating the Fins and the Swedes to join isn’t Russia’s pacifism. Its Russia’s militancy. Russia’s actions in Ukraine is what pushed Finland and Sweden over what had been a political red line, and if Russia doubles down on Ukraine, Finland and Sweden are gonna double down on joining Nato.
It may take some time to overcome Turkish and Slovakian objections, but eventually the United States will bribe, —that’s what we do best —we twist arms, we bribe, we cajole, & They will get a unanimous vote out of Nato. & Russia — It is a strategic defeat for Russia if Finland joins Nato. Once Finland joins Nato, they have article 5 protection, that changes everything.
That means now Russia would have to go — so i believe Russia would have to take out Finland prior to it receiving article 5 protection, which means General Mobilization. So for the Russians its a matter of mobilize now or mobilize later, but you’re gonna have to mobilize no matter what, and the sooner you mobilize the sooner you can resolve what’s becoming a very, very difficult problem in Ukraine. {57:10}
The strategic situation in Ukraine today is far different than it existed when Russia conceived the SMO.
Ray McGovern:
With respect to Finland, the Nato meeting at which this will be decided, ironically enough, in Warsaw - (SR: Madrid) {correction→} Madrid, where the first Nato expansion was approved, so we have Madrid again, that’s the 29th and 30th of next month , June; so is this something we should really be keeping in mind?
Inotherwords, if Finland and Sweden decide to do this kind of thing, will it be approved at the end of June, and so as night follows the day, Russia will have to do something to dissuade the Fins, in the first instance, before the end of June. I throw that out as a , as a question.
I would also add this, Garland and Scott, you’ve mentioned the Nazies. The Nazi invasion of 1941 of Russia, through Ukraine. You mention Napolean, right. What people don’t usually mention is that the Russians suffered invasions from the Swedes, from the Lithuanians, from the Hensiatic League, the Germans up there in the North Baltic, you know ,
This is part of Russian history. Every Russian student knows this.
{Gh—whereas in America we learn next to nothing of any real value in our almost entirely pointless educations…}
So this is sort of like a really bad flashback. What you have here is what Peter the Great wanted to make not happen. By beating a window into Western Europe (?)(muffles)…
and Pushkin had that great poem.
{Forgive me for butchering this as badly as Ray speaks it, i write it worse, sorry}
Llut Grazit me baldwin schveddow - From here, Lenningrad,/ St Petersburg, we’re gonna Grazit, ivan Grozny- we’re gonna threaten, schvedow the Swedes.
Shtites pudjit gor idjalazon Here there’s gonna be a city established
Nazmay ne myet ny mesisuado caugh…{more Russian}
Here nature itself has for-ordained that we’re gonna break a window into Europe.
Now, this is the galactic change, Russia’s given up on that.
{59:51}
And not anytime soon are they gonna break a real decent window into Western Europe ,and they’ve turned around, and luckily for them, Comrade Xi (Z) finds himself in the same strategic situation, the same strategic threat , except He’s Number ONE, and so, this is the new reality ; this is why PuTin can move, if he mobilizes, with a certain degree of assurance that Xi has his back.
Garland Nixon:
Which brings me guys , I know we were supposed to do an hour, but I got one more question, if you don’t mind, if you gotta a couple more minutes, we gotta touch on China. {1:00:29}
Scott, Recently there was an election in the Phillipines, Ferdinand Marcos Junior, a guy who is, you know, let’s face it,
SR: (laughs)
GN: …He ain’t exactly the ah, the latest iteration of Ghandi, by any stretch of the imagination, however, for a number of historical reasons, he’s gonna lean more towards reconciliation with China than would his opponent.
That’s certainly a problem — not a problem to me, its a good thing, in that its gonna stop the NeoCons kind of in their tracks from utilizing Phillipines, we also see that the Solomon Islands, they are also saying, Nah, we’re gonna kinda lean towards China.
What we’re seeing is — wherein the US empire is able to get a bunch of compliant vassal states in the European area to all join and say Yes we’ll host missiles, we’ll take suicide pills, economic suicide pills, Whatever you need to help to poke the eye of the bear {1:01:28}
in the Asian region, they’re not having that kind of success. And China seems stronger as far as allies, China’s going to people , saying, “Hay, here’s 20-30 Billion dollars,” and these countries are saying , “Hay, we’re good, we can go with that. We’re seeing what happens to the Ukraine. We don’t want to get turned into Ukraine. Plus , we’ll take the money… ”
GN:
Your thoughts on what’s happening to the Asian region, Phillipines, the Solomon Islands, etcetera Scott Ritter.
SR:
Well to understand all that you have to understand China’s strategic posturing. They have something they call the Nine-Dash Line. Basically its an old Chinese map that outlines China’s territorial reach based upon the continental shelf extension off of the Chinese continent, into the Pacific. The Nine- Dash Line takes them well into the South Pacific, {1:02:23} sea, and they’ve solidified their position thereby building these enhanced man-made Islands that they’ve now fortified, and for a long time the position of the United States and its allies in the regions was to pushback, to Rollback the Chinese, to make these Islands , the Chinese posture on these Islands, untennable.
That has failed. China has completed the fortification of these Islands. If anything, you know, one of the many lessons of the Ukraine conflict is, that
Big Ships that get too close to shores that have Anti-Ship missiles tend to sink.
Even if they’re called Muskva. And the fact of the matter is that China has stocked these Islands with Area Denial Capability, that eliminates any Naval advantage the United States might have had. So the United States has been looking for a way to contain the new Chinese Reality, and that’s where the Solomon Islands comes in, and that’s where the Phillipines comes in.
Because the United States needs the Phillipines, needs the Solomon Islands, needs other areas to create this this Fouth wall around China. China’s penetrated that. They penetrated it by negotiating a deal with the Solomon Islands that has just blown America’s mind because — you know the Marine Corp., we have this new missile that the Army’s building this missile, called the Dark Eagle {1:04:00} hypersonic missile, supposed to be deployed, they’re talking about this summer, it may be delayed to next summer, because we can’t build weapons that work,
… the idea was, that we would fly these missiles into Australia, operating in Northern Australia, off of unimproved airstrips, and then deploy with the C130 into other unimproved areas, like on the Solomon Islands, where we could land, cart them off, load them up, fire a bunch of missiles, load them back on, fly away before the Chinese even knew what hit them.
Except the Solomon Islands ain’t playing that game anymore. They’re on the other side. And all our strategic thinkers are going, Wait , the Chinese just destroyed all the things, all the chess pieces we’ve been carving.
The Chessboard’s changed.
The Phillipines: you know, yes, we have major military training exercises with the Phillipines , but the ummm, Marcos Jr., … this is a little piece of history : in 1986 I deployed to the Phillipines as part of an emergency force when the original Pappa Marcos went down and we were worried that the new peoples’ army Communists were gonna take over, so i got a little bit of history in the Phillipines.
but Marcos Jr., has said, hay , ah, do you remember in 2016 we all went to the Hellsinki —the International court and said, China would be doing the Nine-Dash Line , this is illegal, against International Law — and we got the Court to agree with us. Well , he says, “Yeah, i’m gonna set that one Aside. I’m just done. We’re not gonna play that diplomatic game with China anymore.
I think its important that we have, we recognize reality and we deal with , we have good relations.” The point is that, US policy’s in a flux. The Chinese know exactly what they want to do , i allways bring this up, i’ll bring it up again, John Boyle’ s ooda-loop.
Get inside the enemy’s decision making cycle: observe, orient , decide , act.
The side that’s inside the decision-making cycle of the other tends to win 100% of the time. China’s inside our decision making cycle. They penetrated it, they’re flipping around, we are reacting to them, and we will never catch up. While this is taking place, the biggest game in town is Taiwan.
And i think China has looked at Ukraine, and the big lesson they got from Ukraine, is, when you decide to act, Act Decisively, and win quickly.
They’re looking at Ukraine dragging out, that this is taking longer than anybody envisioned, me, anybody… i’m wasn’t General Miley saying Five days, but there’s no way i thought this thing was stretching into Month 3, and still unresolved.
SR: {1:06:46} You know, its like i always said,
time is not the friend of Russia or China, that if you create a situation that is a Game-Changer, then Change the Game and WIN the Game.
Because if you change the game and fail to win the game, the other side has tremendous capabilities that take time to mobilize, but once they mobilize, given the alliance structure, they become real capabilities, and if , you know, Russia’s finding that out right now in Europe. China, i think a lesson learned from this is, 1. Avoid war with, over Taiwan at all costs.
Meaning, Push diplomacy, push a diplomatic offramp, push patience.
i attended a conference a little while ago where a strategic Chinese thinker, Senior, basically said , “We can’t go to war with Taiwan, because everything we seek to accomplish by bringing Taiwan into our fold will be destroyed . We need a functioning Taiwan. We need Taiwan to be viable, we need Taiwan to have People, the economy, etcetera, And a war would destroy all that, so we’d be cutting ourselves in the throat by invading Taiwan.” {1:08:00}
“The only reason why we would go into Taiwan is if Taiwan declared Independence. Or if other Nations started treating Taiwan like an Independent state.”
The danger is that the United States is starting to treat Taiwan like an Independent State. And Taiwan’s starting to talk the language of Independence.
So, we are teetering towards a conflict that China does not want to fight. But remember this: We’re incapable of fighting.
we, Unlike Ukraine, we have no ability to reinforce Taiwan. There is no military relationship. We have no predeployed forces, and thousands of miles of Pacific Ocean separate The United States from Taiwan and we would lose every ship we sought to send to Taiwan to reinforce Taiwan.
So China knows this, and i believe that China, —the lesson they got from Ukraine is — , delay war, Forever, If Possible, that
war is not the solution.
Nobody looking at Ukraine thinks that this is a good situation for anybody involved. for anybody involved. Its a disaster for everybody. Because even if Russia wins the war, what’s the Peace? gonna look like?
So Taiwan‘s {China’s } looking at that saying, “Man, Decisive military action may not be as decisive as you think its gonna be. That , you can’t predict the outcome, so we’re not going to move decisively on Taiwan.”
China’s actually pretty happy with the situation that exists right now. They’re slowly but surely gaining economic control over Taiwan, thru these economic relationships, etcetera. So Taiwan i think would allow the current situation to extend in perpetuity , as long as Taiwan doesn’t formally declare Independence. The Danger comes if Taiwan says, “yeah, we wanna be Independent, we’re gonna buy off on this American notion of Freeing Ourselves, because when that happens…
SR:
I think the other lesson China got is, when you act, Act Decisively, Terminate this thing, {1:10:00} instantly, and i think, that,
Taiwan will find out that there will never be Independence. All there will be is One form of Chinese control over Another. You can either work with the Chinese right now and have a wonderful nation, or All that will end. But either way you’re gonna be under China.
China doesn’t want war, but if they’re gonna fight a war, they’re gonna win the war, (snaps fingers) that quick. That’s my thinking.
Garland Nixon:
Ray, do you want to add one last thing to that, and that is…
in the event that there were problems with their partner of the strategic alliance in Europe, Russia was having some issues, is it possible that the Chinese could say, We’re going to stir up some trouble in the Taiwanese straight, we’re gonna stir up some problems there to broaden the concerns of the US empire , you know, if they see, because
in reality, the war in Ukraine, …China does see that as their war also.
Is it possible that that’s another possibility ? Even if let’s say, they’re going to , or not going to, attack Taiwan, but they see Russia having problems, and the US focusing on that , that they just say, You know what, we’re gonna give you some headaches over here and we’re gonna make you look in another direction and see if you have the resources and wherewithal to go in two directions at the same time.
i’m just throwing that out there, but your thought on all of this Ray McGovern. {1:11:27}
RM:
Well, Garland, i believe you’re right, and i’ve been saying this for a year now. Long before it became a situation where both the Chinese and the Russians described their Alliance as having no limits, as being closer in effectiveness than a traditional Alliance, that’s where they are now.
Now, did Xi openly or tacitly bless the invasion of Ukraine? Everything i’ve seen so far since the invasion of Ukraine in terms of China’s reaction persuades me that Putin would never have gone ahead had he not gotten at least tacit acquiessence from China.
My Chinese analyst colleagues disagree, —Oh no, China would never ever violate their devotion to principals of Westphalia, non-interference in the affairs of other countries— that’s their principle position… yeah right, In my view, they gave PuTin — what? — a waiver, on that, Ok, PuTin, you Go Ahead…
Now why? Was it because Xi (Z) loves PuTin, as he says he’s his best friend? well , nah, … The Chinese are on the top of the list for the next target of US-Nato , even Nato, the ATLANTIC security treaty, talking about being involved in China, in East Asia, for two years now.
Ok, what does that mean? Well you don’t have to be paranoid to be concerned if you’re a Chinese person, if you’re the Chinese president, so in answer to your question,Yes, i think, before actually Putin did something really really dramatic like dropping a little nuclear capable missile in the middle of Finland, not killing anybody but showing how quickly that missile could get there and how it is nuclear capable, — before he even did that,
I think he would say, Hay President Xi, its not going as well as i thought it was, why don’t you stir up a little anxiety on the part of the US out there in East Asia, why don’t you rattle a few swords, instead of sending 19 fighter jets over the Taiwan air interdiction zone, why don’t you double that? Why don’t you get them scared, because even these, —well , what should i call them, let’s just not use adjectives, —
Even these top US military people are smart enough, No, they are smart enought to realize they can’t handle a two front war. And that’s what it would amount to . Not only a two front war, but a two front war with nuclear capable adversaries. I mean , that should be in their head, and they should be able to understand that, and so at that point they should go to President Biden, and say
Joe, let’s pull back a little, let’s look at the danger that our ships are gonna be sunk if we send them out there.
GN: Well i want to thank you guys and i want to thank our viewers…
{end of transcript}
Thank you Grasshopper for all your splendid work.
The US is good at bribery, but the CCP is even better.
I like the line about Western Europe being happy to take an economic suicide pill. (And now they are wanting Russia to be kind and send them some food.) Fools, or, worse; just doing the depop.